As the Continental Tyres Cup Group Stage concludes, Arsenal faces crucial matches with potential knock-out stage implications.

We delve into the various scenarios that could see Arsenal, currently facing a challenging match against Reading, progress in the tournament.

We have reached the final day in the Continental Tyres Cup Group Stage, and it is all to play for many teams who can still make the knock-out stage. Arsenal will be away to Championship side Reading, who had to postpone their League game on Sunday due to food poisoning. Their opponents from last week, Wolves also had to call off their game.

Seven teams will make it to the knock-out stage from the 23 that started the competition, as Chelsea have been given a bye to the quarter-finals as they are competing in the UEFA Women’s Champions League. Here are the qualification rules:

The Clubs finishing in first place in each Group will progress to the Knock Out Stage. If any Clubs competing in the UEFA Champions League enter the Cup Competition at the Group Stage, then then the equivalent number of best second placed teams or team, as appropriate, (based on and in the order of, highest number of average points per game, highest average goal difference per game, highest average goals scored per game, drawing of lots) will progress to the Knock Out Stage.

So, the five group winners qualify for the knock-out stage as well as the best two runner-ups.

Here are the current rankings:

The first and easiest option for Arsenal is to win the Group D.

a) A win at Reading would guarantee it. b) Should Arsenal draw the game and win the penalty shoot-out, they would reach 10 points and would need to wait for the next day and Spurs‘ result away to Southampton. Any other result other than a win for Spurs would send Arsenal through. Should Spurs win at Saints, both teams would get ten points, and it would go to the second criteria, which is overall goal difference. Spurs would top the group on that criterion. c) Should Arsenal draw the game and lose the penalty shootout, the Gunners would end up with nine points. Spurs would need either a win or a draw with a penalty shootout to win the group. d) Should Arsenal lose the game, they would end up with eight points, and only a Spurs defeat would send us through as group winners.

The second option would be to finish in the top two runners-up from the five groups. The ranking is done on the average number of points scored per game. Let’s go back to the previous scenarios where we finish second:

b) 10 points in four games = 2.50 points per game.
c) Nine points in four games = 2.25 points per game.
d) Eight points in four games = 2.00 points per game.

Let’s see what can happen in the other groups:

Group A
Villa would finish second with either nine or 10 points, equating to either 2.25 or 2.50 points per game, but they are more likely to win their group. Sunderland will probably get the runners-up spot with seven to 10points, that’s 1.75 to 2.50 points per game.

Note Durham could finish runner-up if Sunderland lose by eight goals to nil or more, but that is not a realistic scenario.

Group B
Leicester can only finish runner-up with eight points, which is 2.00 points per game. Manchester United can only finish runner-up with nine points, equating to 2.25 points per game. Manchester City can finish runner-up with seven to nine points, which is 1.75 to 2.25 points per game.

Group C
Has only four teams (all from the Championship): All four teams can finish as runner-up with either four or five points, which means 1.33 to 1.66 points per game, and that is not enough to qualify. The best or second-best runner-up will not come from Group C.

Group E
Also has four teams: Brighton can only finish runner-up if they lose their game by three goals and would end up with six points in three games, equating to 2.00 points per game. Charlton could end up runner-up with four or five points, which is 1.33 to 1.66 points per game, and again that would not be enough to qualify. West Ham could finish runner-up with four to six points, which is 1.33 to 2.00 points per game.

Basically, one of the top two best runner-up spots is guaranteed with ten points, is quite likely with nine points, and unlikely with eight points. But I would expect an Arsenal side that should rotate quite a lot of players, at least seven changes, to defeat a side that has now returned to part-time football and sits in tenth place in the second tier.