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The transfer window is now open. With the Gunners in good shape for a Premier League title tilt over the second half of the campaign, fans might be forgiven for thinking that the club will be very active in the market to help them over the line.
With Man City struggling in recent weeks, Arsenal have as good a chance as any to win this year’s Premier League title. Although the latest outright football betting odds on the Premier League suggest they’re still second favourites (3.50) behind Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City (2.20). Some may perceive this as value, especially given that Arsenal were five points ahead of City after game week 17.
Why £100m+ January signings are out of the equation for Arsenal next month
So, why won’t the Gunners fans be confident that the club will invest more nine-figure sums to improve the squad further in the January window? There’s a small matter of Financial Fair Play (FFP). FFP is increasingly baring its teeth in the Premier League. Everton were recently stung by ten points for breaching FFP rules, while seven-time Premier League winners Manchester City is also being investigated over 115 individual charges of FFP breaches.
Arsenal were placed on a watchlist by UEFA last summer after the Gunners’ hefty 2022 summer spending. The Gunners’ net spending in the 2023 summer transfer window also totalled £133m prior to add-ons and before any undisclosed fees were received for outgoing players. So, how is the North London club managing to circumnavigate the FFP concerns felt by the likes of City, Everton, and London rivals, Chelsea?
The club will benefit from its consistent return to Champions League football. Last term, the Gunners received just £22m from UEFA, having competed in the Europa League. Compare that with Manchester City, who were said to have received £105m for making a deep run into the knockout stages of the Champions League, and you can see why regular top-four finishes are the order of the day for Arteta’s troops now.
It must also be said that some of their transfer dealings were incredibly savvy this summer. None more so than the signing of Brentford’s Spanish keeper, David Raya. Raya agreed to a season-long loan deal with an option to buy in the summer of 2024 rather than an obligation to buy. Obligations to buy would be included in the club’s FFP expenditure for the 2023/24 campaign, but loans with an option to buy would be included in the 2024/25 FFP budget.
It’s this wiggle room that allowed the club to invest heavily in England midfielder Declan Rice as well as Chelsea forward Kai Havertz. Nevertheless, their summer splurges will surely result in a more muted January transfer window. Sporting director Edu says the club is “prepared” for January and that the club “always has its targets” in mind.
A sell-to-buy approach may create some FFP headroom for January reinforcements
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In order to afford any further incomings, Arsenal may be required to balance the books with outgoings first. With Raya seemingly cemented as Arteta’s first-choice goalkeeper, it’s possible that England international Aaron Ramsdale could be sacrificed to bolster the transfer kitty. Newcastle are one club reportedly sniffing around Ramsdale, given their own goalkeeper issues of late.
Meanwhile, fringe players Eddie Nketiah and Emile Smith Rowe could also be on the available list in January, along with defender Cedric Soares, who is in the final year of his contract.
If the Gunners are in the market for one high-profile signing, it’s likely to be in central midfield. With Thomas Partey suffering a setback in his recovery from a thigh problem and a possible call-up to the Ghana squad for the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) in the New Year, an able deputy could be the difference between winning the title and not. Aston Villa’s Brazilian, Douglas Luiz, remains a long-term target, but with Villa also part of the title race at present, there’s no way they’ll entertain such a bid.
Monaco’s French midfielder Youssouf Fofana would be a cheaper option, with his contract expiring in 18 months and the 24-year-old seemingly unlikely to sign new terms on the French Riviera.
One thing is for sure, Arsenal’s January transfer dealings will be a case of quality over quantity.