Examine Arsenal’s performance under UEFA’s new Women’s Champions League format, England’s 50% qualification rate, and the crucial role of the draw.

• Arsenal have a 2/2 qualification record under the new UEFA Women’s Champions League format, while Manchester City have failed both times.
• Only five teams qualify via the League Path to the Group Stage out of 22 teams in the new format.
• The draw plays a crucial role in a team’s progression, as seen in Arsenal’s 2021/22 season when they drew a weaker opponent.

A couple of seasons ago, UEFA changed the Women’s Champions League format, returning to the Group Stage format and creating a qualifying format similar to the men’s tournament with a Champions Path and a League Path.

Arsenal will play in the League Path and enter in Round 1.

We will examine how far the English teams progressed under the new format.

The 2023/24 season will be the third season under the new format, with only five teams qualifying via the League Path to the Group Stage out of 22 teams.

In the first season with the new format back in 2021/22, the following entered in Round 1: six third-placed teams from associations ranked 1–6, as well as 10 runners-up from associations ranked 7–16.

Those entering in Round 2 were six runners-up from associations ranked 1–6.

The five teams that progressed to the Group Stage were: Olympique Lyonnais (France runner-up), Arsenal (England 3rd place), Real Madrid (Spain runner-up), WFL Wolfsburg (Germany runner-up), and 1899 Hoffenheim (Germany third place).

The English runner-up team Manchester City lost to Real Madrid in the second round.

In the second season with the new format in 2022/23, six third-placed teams from associations ranked 1–6 entered in Round 1. Additionally, 10runners-up from associations ranked 7–16 entered.

Round 2 consisted of six runners-up from associations ranked 1–6.

The five teams that progressed to the Group Stage were Arsenal (England runner-up), Paris-Saint Germain (France runner-up), Bayern Munich (Germany runner-up), Real Madrid (Spain third place), and AS Roma (Italy runner-up).

Historically, Arsenal have a 2/2 qualification record under the new format, while Manchester City are 0/2, losing both times to Real Madrid.

This leaves England with a 50% qualification rate.

If we examine by country:

• France: 2/4 (50%) both runner-ups went through
• Germany: 3/4 (75%) only one third placed team did not make it
• England: 2/4 (50%) Arsenal qualified twice, Manchester City failed twice
• Spain: 2/4 (50%) Real Madrid qualified twice, once as runner-up and once as third placed
• Sweden: 0/4 (0%)
• Czechia: 0/4 (0%)
• Denmark: 0/2 (0%)
• Netherlands: 0/2 (0%)
• Italy: 1/2 (50%) AS Roma made it to the Group Stage, the only non-top 4 association team to make it
• Kazakhstan: 0/2 (0%)
• Norway: 0/2 (0%)
• Iceland: 0/2 (0%)
• Switzerland: 0/2 (0%)
• Scotland: 0/2 (0%)
• Russia: 0/1 (0%)
• Belarus: 0/2 (0%)
• Austria: 0/1 (0%)

The data clearly shows the big countries with historically strong teams have a significant advantage, with only Italy managing to squeeze one team through.

The draw makes a substantial difference, as in 2021/22, for example, Arsenal drew the weakest possible opponent, Slavia Prague, instead of Lyon or Wolfsburg.

Should the Gunners progress past Round 1, they will be seeded in Round 2 and will thus avoid all the major teams.

The odds of qualification look promising as long as the Round 1 draw is favourable to the Gunners.