France Football have named the 20 players selected for the Women’s Ballon d’Or 2019, so let’s look at them all and see who is likely to win in Monday’s ceremony.

Lyon's Norwegian forward Ada Hegerberg, winner of 2018 Women's Ballon d'Or award for best player of the year, poses with the trophy during a press conference with Lyon's President at the Groupama training center in Lyon, central eastern France, on December 4, 2018. - Awarded the Golden Ball on December 3, Hegerberg is the first woman who won the price. (Photo by ROMAIN LAFABREGUE / AFP)
Lyon’s Norwegian forward Ada Hegerberg, winner of 2018 Women’s Ballon d’Or award for best player of the year, poses with the trophy during a press conference with Lyon’s President at the Groupama training center in Lyon, central eastern France, on December 4, 2018. – Awarded the Golden Ball on December 3, Hegerberg is the first woman who won the price. (Photo by ROMAIN LAFABREGUE / AFP)

There are some surprises in the nominees for the Women’s Ballon d’Or, some forgotten players and the usual candidates.

The Women’s Ballon d’Or winner will be revealed on Monday, 2 December in Paris.

A reminder of the voting rules, the 50 journalists will have to follow:

  • Each voter chooses five players from a list of 20, selected by France Football
  • The five players then get 6, 4, 3, 2, and 1 points.
  • The trophy is given to the player with the most points.
  • If players are tied, the winner is the player with the most first places (6 points).
  • If they are still tied, the winner is the player with the most second place (5 points)
  • If the players are still tied, again the winner is the player with the most third places (4 points).
  • If the players are still tied at this point, there will be a new vote between those two players
  • The vote is made on the performances on the calendar year i.e. 2019, with three main criteria: 1. Individual and team performances (honors) 2. Player’s class (talent and fair play) 3. The player’s overall career.

So, within those parameters, anyone who has not won a big trophy is not likely to win the Ballon D’Or.

As usual the big question is,’in a World Cup year, how much weight do you give it in comparison to clubs’ results ?’

Some people think the World Cup is the biggest tournament in women’s football and therefore should weigh more than club form. It is a complex dilemma for the journalists who vote and we will see in the final result how much weight they put on it.

I have ranked the players in three groups. Those who could win, the outsiders and the others.

Possible winners

LYON, FRANCE - JULY 07: (L-R) Sari Van Veenendaal of the Netherlands, golden glove, Megan Rapinoe of the USA, golden boot and Alex Morgan of the USA, silver boot celebrate with their respective trophies after the 2019 FIFA Women's World Cup France Final match between The United States of America and The Netherlands at Stade de Lyon on July 07, 2019 in Lyon, France. (Photo by Alex Grimm/Getty Images)
LYON, FRANCE – JULY 07: (L-R) Sari Van Veenendaal of the Netherlands, golden glove, Megan Rapinoe of the USA, golden boot and Alex Morgan of the USA, silver boot celebrate with their respective trophies after the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup France Final match between The United States of America and The Netherlands at Stade de Lyon on July 07, 2019 in Lyon, France. (Photo by Alex Grimm/Getty Images)

Megan Rapinoe, USA. Probably the favourite as she won the FIFA Golden Ball and Golden boot at the World Cup and the FIFA BEST player award. But her club contribution has been very limited.

Alex Morgan, USA. Another big game and another World Cup winner. Like Rapinoe, however, her club contribution this season has been minimal.

Rose Lavelle, USA. Another world champion, along with Bronze ball at the World Cup, and probably the most talented player in the US squad.

Sam Kerr, AUS. Top goalscorer in the NWSL again, but Australia’s poor World Cup might count against her. Individually outstanding and consistent at the highest level. One of the clear favourites.

Lucy Bronze, ENG. Excellent results for her club, the current UEFA player of the year, and Silver ball winner at the World Cup

Nilla Fischer, SWE. The rock in Sweden’s defenceĀ  that led them to the Bronze medal and an excellent season with her club, Wolfsburg, before moving in the summer to Linkopings

Outsiders

Olympique Lyonnais' Norwegian forward Ada Hegerberg gestures after receiving the 2018 FIFA Women's Ballon d'Or award for best player of the year during the 2018 FIFA Ballon d'Or award ceremony at the Grand Palais in Paris on December 3, 2018. - The winner of the 2018 Ballon d'Or will be revealed at a glittering ceremony in Paris on December 3 evening, with Croatia's Luka Modric and a host of French World Cup winners all hoping to finally end the 10-year duopoly of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi. (Photo by FRANCK FIFE / AFP) (Photo credit should read FRANCK FIFE/AFP/Getty Images)
Olympique Lyonnais’ Norwegian forward Ada Hegerberg gestures after receiving the 2018 FIFA Women’s Ballon d’Or award for best player of the year during the 2018 FIFA Ballon d’Or award ceremony at the Grand Palais in Paris on December 3, 2018. (Photo by FRANCK FIFE / AFP) Ada Hegerberg, NOR. In good form with her club including a hat-trick in the Champions League final. The current Ballon D’Or holder did not participate in the World Cup, so that might end up hurting her in the votes.

Dzsenifer Marozsan, GER. The playmaker had a fine club season while Germany disappointed at the World Cup and she was injured early on.

Vivianne Miedema, NED. A fantastic club season and a World Cup runner-up place should see her finish in the top 10 and maybe even in the top 5, but probably not in with a shout for the trophy.

Tobin Heath, USA. Another World Champion, I don’t think she was brilliant at the tournament, did OK with Portland when available.

Amandine Henry, FRA. The France captain had an excellent season club-wise and also performed well at the World Cup but France’s lack of success will not help her and she could be in top five, maybe.

Kosovare Asllani, SWE. She had a fantastic World Cup leading Sweden to the Bronze medal. Results were not as good with her club before moving to Real Madrid (Tacon this season)

Unlikely to win

WALSALL, ENGLAND - MAY 25: Ellen White of England shoots on goal during the International Friendly between England Women and Denmark Women at Bank's Stadium on May 25, 2019 in Walsall, England. (Photo by Jan Kruger/Getty Images)
WALSALL, ENGLAND – MAY 25: Ellen White of England shoots on goal during the International Friendly between England Women and Denmark Women at Bank’s Stadium on May 25, 2019 in Walsall, England. (Photo by Jan Kruger/Getty Images)

Sarah Bouhaddi, FRA. She has had a great club season with a treble and an excellent World Cup. But France’s QF defeat means she will not win it, as well as the fact that she is a goalkeeper and they rarely win these trophies.

Ellen White, ENG. She had an excellent World Cup, finishing with the Bronze boot, but her club minutes were limited due to injury.

Marta, BRA. A good season with Orlando Pride but Brazil World Cup’s was not brilliant. She had an iconic moment after their World Cup quarter finals defeat. My guess is this is the reason she is nominated.

Sari van Veenendaal, NED. Won the League with Arsenal, even if as a second choice, and Golden glove at the World Cup. Same as Bouhaddi, unlikely to win it due to being a goalkeeper.

Wendie Renard, FRA. Another one with a good club season but a disappointing World Cup with a quarter-final exit. And did not play well during the tournament despite scoring goals.

Lieke Martens, NED. A good club season with Barcelona reaching the Champions League final but was injured during the World Cup so did not offer the brilliance shown at the 2017 Euros.

Pernille Harder, DEN. Another solid season with her club Wolfsburg, but did not manage to qualify for the World Cup. If you do not perform on the world’s biggest stage, you cannot really claim to be the best player in the world.

Sofia Jakobsson, SWE. Another Swedish player who had a great World Cup but also a disappointing season with her club, Montpellier.

If I had a vote, these are the five players who I would give the points to:

  1. Lavelle
  2. Kerr
  3. Bronze
  4. Rapinoe
  5. Miedema.

I expect Rapinoe to win it, as voters are likely to follow the World Cup trend.