New passing stats could help to explain Mikel Arteta’s decision to use David Raya over Aaron Ramsdale, with the manager suggesting the goalkeeper has settled in well.
One of the major talking points in the early stages of Arsenal’s season has been the decision to sign David Raya, with the goalkeeper joining on an initial loan from Brentford with an option to buy at the end of the season.
Aaron Ramsdale was already considered one of the Premier League’s better goalkeepers, and the England international had signed a new contract with Arsenal just a few months earlier.
As a result, it was somewhat surprising to see Mikel Arteta not only opting to sign a new goalkeeper, but also making that new keeper his number one in the Premier League and the Champions League over the last month or so.
Yet perhaps new stats from StatsBomb could help to explain the decision.
The stats company have been looking at Expected Pass stats, effectively creating a baseline for how often you’d expect a pass to be completed based on the specific conditions of that pass.
They then compare a player’s Expected Passes Completed against their actual completion rate. This helps to evaluate whether a passer is particularly strong or weak at passing compared to their peers, and compared to what’s expected given the risks they’re taking (or not, as the case may be).
Interestingly, Raya is outperforming Ramsdale at both the safer end of the scale, and also at the riskier end. Ramsdale reportedly outperforms Raya in the medium-risk range, but even then, Raya is performing above average compared to the rest of the league.
"Last season, Raya outperformed Ramsdale on both safe and risky passes. Ramsdale outperformed Raya in the medium-risk range, but Raya still performed above expectation there too"
StatsBomb Release New Models: Expected Pass (xPass) and Pass Clustering 🔽https://t.co/8y9O7oQWTH pic.twitter.com/oPzeDmIde0
— StatsBomb (@StatsBomb) October 6, 2023
So if Raya is outperforming Ramsdale in some key areas, and still more than adequate in the remainder, then he’s probably a better choice when you’re playing out from the back.
That’s something Arteta clearly values, and it could help to explain why Raya is favoured at the moment.
Of course, it doesn’t always work, as we saw with the mistake in the Lens game in midweek. But on average, Raya’s work in possession appears to be preferable.
Speaking to the media about Raya’s arrival in his press conference on Friday, Arteta seemed pleased with the new addition.
“Very good,” Arteta answered when asked how Raya had settled in. “Around the players, with his teammates, around the club, he knows London really well, he knows the way we play and he’s used to that and he knows the league, so he’s done exceptionally well.”