Jurgen Klopp said that Liverpool’s recent Covid outbreak was actually a ‘lot of false positives’ but that seems highly unlikely and it has annoyed a number of EFL clubs, not that the EFL and their former Liverpool chief executive chairman care about that.
With apparently just three players out with Covid, Liverpool somehow managed to get the EFL to agree to postpone the first leg of the Carabao Cup semi-final against Arsenal, due to take place at the Emirates.
As a result, Arsenal will now have to play the first leg away and face Liverpool twice, either side of the North London derby.
Speaking to the media, Klopp was asked about his club’s outbreak, which they had said was ‘severe’.
First up, Klopp revealed that this ‘severe’ outbreak actually only involved one player – Trent Alexander-Arnold.
“This was the team we could line up with today and the boys did really well,” said Klopp after their FA Cup game against Shrewsbury, which seen him name four teenagers in the starting lineup.
“We had last week a proper outbreak and it showed up that we had a lot of false positives but the rules are like they are, so all these players who are false positives couldn’t play.
“The only real positive came from Trent Alexander-Arnold and all the rest were false positives.”
The problem, however, is that one false positive is very unlikely, specifically because the tests are designed to pick up positive results.
False negatives are far more likely due to a number of factors, including human error when doing the test.
For a positive, the test needs the virus to react to.
This does not sound particularly plausible, given the very low false positive rate of these tests.
Would love to know what “a lot” actually constitutes.
— Covid Fact Check UK (@fact_covid) January 9, 2022
Studies have shown that there is a rate of around 0.5% for false positives.
We can assume if the results were false positives, as Klopp states, no symptoms were involved.
That means the chance of a false positive FOR A SINGLE PLAYER is around 1 in 1,998:
Now repeat that multiple times.
The chances of two false positives is one in four MILLION.
Three? One in eight BILLION.
If you want to get ridiculous and look at the odds of four false positives, well, that’s one in 16,000,000,000,000.
I don’t even know how you say that number, it’s so big.
Of course, due to Covid regulations, clubs must also include players from their youth teams, so the squad in this case is much larger.
Still…that doesn’t change anything. The percentages stay the same.
We don’t know how many is a ‘lot’ in terms of this imaginary Liverpool outbreak, but it was a significant number as they got a game postponed.
I’m not saying Liverpool are lying.
I am, however, saying that what they are claiming is highly improbable.
EFL clubs demand probe into Liverpool’s Covid situation but won’t get one
Some EFL clubs have demanded an inquiry into the situation at Liverpool that saw them get a game postponed despite only a handful of actual Covid cases.
The Athletic report that, “The EFL is under pressure to investigate why Liverpool players who tested positive for COVID-19 before the postponement of their Carabao Cup semi-final first leg at Arsenal were subsequently found to have been negative, with the Anfield club facing questions over the scale of their recent outbreak.”
They add, “The Athletic understands that the EFL has received complaints from some of its clubs over the postponement, following Jurgen Klopp’s admission that all but one of the club’s positive tests were ‘false positives’ — meaning later tests showed those players did not actually have COVID-19.
“The upset clubs want the situation investigated because a number of them have requested postponements this season because of COVID-19 outbreaks only for appeals to be rejected.”
In the least surprising news of the week, the EFL, however, will not investigate Liverpool.
The Evening Standard report, “The EFL has no plans to investigate the circumstances of Liverpool’s recent Covid outbreak which led to the postponement of their Carabao Cup semi-final against Arsenal, despite Jurgen Klopp revealing that all but one of their cases was a “false positive”
“The EFL is satisfied that Liverpool had legitimate grounds for a delay at the time of their appeal and provided all the necessary evidence, so will resist any calls to examine the circumstances of the outbreak.”
The Chairman of the EFL is former Liverpool Chief Exec, Rick Parry.