Arsenal may only have a 20% chance of finishing in the top four this season.

If you believe the stats, Arsenal’s season could be over by March.

Arsenal are only five points off fourth place at the moment which, with 16 games to go, isn’t impossible to overcome.

The problem is that Liverpool happen to be in excellent form at the moment, and should they slip up, Tottenham will also be around to take advantage.

These factors, plus Arsenal’s expected points range, leave them with just a 20% chance of a top four finish, according to one data analyst.

There are parallels with Manchester United’s season last year.

United spent much of the campaign outside the top four, and virtually gave up on it during the second half of the season due to their Europa League commitments.

They went on to win the Europa League and qualify for the Champions League anyway.

It’s looking likely that Arsenal will have to do the same this season.

United also happened to win the League Cup that year, something Arsenal could have the chance to do if they beat Chelsea next Wednesday.

Otherwise, come March, Arsenal could end up not having a great deal to play for.

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News and feature writer with a BA in Creative and Professional Writing from the University of East London. Long-time Arsenal fan also following Sevilla and local side Southend United. You can find me on Twitter @jeinchy29 talking about Arsenal and the issues affecting the English game,