Juventus will likely miss out on the Champions League after they were docked 10 points on Monday and Arsenal will benefit.
Over the weekend, Corriere dello Sport reported that Juventus would be sentenced on Monday over alleged irregularities in the club’s payments to players and undue relationships with players’ agents and other clubs, and the federal prosecutor was expected to ask for a 9-12 point penalty.
They received 10.
This isn’t the first time Juventus have been sentenced, and they were previously successful in appealing against a previous 15-point penalty, leading to the current hearing.
But Juventus were unsuccessful this time, dropping out of the Champions League places after a 10-point penalty which is enough to make it almost impossible to finish in the Serie A top four.
They are now 7th, five points from the Champions League spots with two games to play after losing 4-1 at Empoli on Monday evening after the points deduction had been confirmed.
That is beneficial to Arsenal, who are still waiting to find out which pot they’ll end up in for next year’s Champions League draw.
Juve have been confirmed stripped of 10 points, putting them 7th and five points from a CL place. Milan go to fourth, Roma about to finalize a terrible draw at home to Salernitana which will really hurt their chances of getting 4th https://t.co/IFDxpAlgs4
— Adam Rae Voge (@adamvoge) May 22, 2023
The Champions League group stage draw places teams in four pots, with Pot 1 for various league champions and 2022/23 European trophy winners, and the rest of the pots determined by each club’s UEFA coefficient.
There are lots of factors still at play, but as it stands, Arsenal would have been in Pot 3 before Juventus’ points deduction.
That would have meant that when the draw takes place, the Gunners would draw a team from Pot 1 and Pot 2, which contain most of the best teams in Europe.
As it stands, Pot 2 is likely to contain the likes of Real Madrid, Inter Milan, Borussia Dortmund, Atletico Madrid, RB Leipzig, and FC Porto. Manchester United will also be in Pot 2, but Arsenal can’t draw them, regardless of where they end up.
Arsenal sneaking into Pot 2 themselves means they will avoid facing any of the other Pot 2 teams, drawing a team from Pots 1, 3, and 4 instead.
That brings us to how Juventus’ participation in the Champions League affects Arsenal
As Juventus drop out of Champions League qualifying places, they’ll obviously be replaced by one of the other Serie A teams, most likely now 4th-place AC Milan.
Whilst Juventus have a better coefficient score than Arsenal, Milan don’t.
So Juventus would be in Pot 2 ahead of Arsenal, but if Milan are the team to qualify, Arsenal would step up to Pot 2 instead.
There are still other ways for Arsenal to make it into Pot 2.
If Inter Milan win the Champions League final, or one of the teams who are currently expected to qualify drop out, that may help.
The situation remains complex at this stage, but it will become increasingly clear over the coming weeks.