In recent seasons, Arsenal have started to settle into a pattern of making a late flourish when all seems lost, but then performing even more poorly in the next campaign.
The final stretch of each season seems to lull fans into a false sense of security, making them think everything isn’t as bad as it appeared. It never lasts though. Let’s take a look at the last four seasons to illustrate the point.
42017/18
That brings us to this season. At this stage in early March, it’s already impossible for Arsenal to reach their points tally from 2016/17. The team have a league win percentage of 45%, and an overall percentage of 50%. They’ve lost more in all competitions than the whole of the previous campaign as well.
The last couple of months have been a complete nightmare in the league, with five defeats in just seven matches. Plus there were the cup eliminations to Nottingham Forest and Manchester City (although the latter was in the final against the best team in the country).
Amazingly, there’s still potential for Wenger’s side to come good right at the end. Arsenal are still fighting on one front, the Europa League, and things are going pretty well. They had a solid group stage and three good halves in two matches against Östersund. Now they’re 2-0 up against one of the competition favourites after victory in Milan.
With any luck, this could be the late flourish we’re now coming to expect from the team. Arsenal could well go on a European run, and lifting the trophy would mean Champions League qualification for next season.
If we can learn anything from the past few years though, it’s that this wouldn’t necessarily mean an improvement next season. In fact it could just as easily be followed by something even worse, as difficult as that is to imagine.
Arsenal, Wenger and Stan Kroenke need to think hard about how they’re going to avoid that happening. The damage another year of regression could do isn’t something we should dismiss lightly. It’s time to act.