Theo Walcott is clinical, but you probably don’t believe me.
Stats like the one below have been doing the rounds in recent days, and the talk is pretty hot right now: Walcott isn’t clinical enough.
— Sky Sports News HQ (@SkySportsNewsHQ) September 15, 2015
Alan Shearer has stuck his boot in and Walcott definitely did miss a few fantastic chances on Saturday, but in general he is a fantastic finisher.
His conversion rate is as good as Thierry Henry’s was from 2003-2007, and he regularly outperforms expected goals (ExpG). Huh? What?
ExpG is a measure used within football analytics to calculate the probability of a goal being scored by assessing the circumstances in which each individual shot is taken, and Theo consistently shoots above it.
All scorers bar Messi are inconsistent, but Walcott rates as a solidly above average finisher over the last six years.
— Michael Caley (@MC_of_A) September 12, 2015
Above average – unlike Welbeck and Giroud – is not a coincidence over SIX YEARS. The same can’t be said for Sky’s pitiful sample of two matches (started) form which Walcott has missed six big chances.
At the end of the day, Walcott is an excellent finisher. His conversion rate over four years is ever so slightly behind Sergio Agüero’s. If he is missing chances it is great, as he’s getting them in the first place, and eventually they’ll start nestling into the back of the net.
These things even out and, should he stay fit, Theo Walcott will score a lot of goals for Arsenal this season.