Why the penalty shootout coin-toss needs changing

Arsenal’s penalty shootout defeat to Fleetwood Town continued a long-running trend, which perhaps indicates the coin-toss system needs changing.

Arsenal can have no complaints about their League Cup exit to Fleetwood Town on Tuesday night.

The Gunners created all the chances they needed to win the game, and they repeatedly failed to put them away, other than one scuffed finish from Viktor Gyokeres.

Then they had another chance to progress through a penalty shootout, and Illan Meslier made zero saves, while the experienced Bruno Guimaraes blew his kick in the same way he did for Brazil in the summer. It was an entirely self-inflicted defeat, and a result Fleetwood worked very hard to earn.

Yet the shootout did highlight an ongoing trend with Arsenal penalty shootouts, involving the one element entirely outside of the club’s control.

Ahead of the penalty shootout on Tuesday night, the referee made two coin tosses. One was to determine which end the penalties would take place, and the other was the determine which team would take the first kick.

Fleetwood ‘won’ both tosses, allowing them to take their penalties in front of their own supporters, and to take the first kick as well.

By a quirk of chance, Tuesday’s game was the seventh consecutive Arsenal shootout where the same team has won both coin tosses. The team to win both tosses has then won the shootout on all seven occasions.

1. Arsenal vs Sporting (22/23) – Sporting won both coin tosses, Sporting won the shootout.
2. Arsenal vs Manchester City (23/24) – Arsenal won both coin tosses, Arsenal won the shootout.
3. Arsenal vs FC Porto (23/24) – Arsenal won both coin tosses, Arsenal won the shootout.
4. Arsenal vs Manchester United (24/25) – Manchester United won both coin tosses, Manchester United won the shootout.
5. Arsenal vs Crystal Palace (25/26) – Arsenal won both coin tosses, Arsenal won the shootout.
6. Paris-Saint-Germain vs Arsenal (25/26) – PSG won both coin tosses, PSG won the shootout.
7. Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal (26/27) – Fleetwood Town won both coin tosses, Fleetwood Town won the shootout.

There is clearly a psychological advantage to taking the penalties in front of your own supporters, and it’s well established that there’s also an advantage to taking the first penalty.

That advantage was why the ABBA penalty system was briefly introduced a few years ago, to try and level the playing field, before being abandoned because it was deemed too confusing for spectators.

But the solution to the problem of one team getting both advantages seems simple. One coin flip, and the winner can either choose the end or the first taker, not both.

FIFA did look into this solution earlier this year, holding talks with IFAB. It was decided that they didn’t want to change the rules mid-World Cup, but The Athletic reported that the potential change may be revisited at a later date.

For those wondering what happened in Arsenal’s 8th most-recent shootout, Arsenal won the coin toss to determine the end, and Liverpool won the coin toss to determine the first taker.

On that occasion, with the advantages split between the two teams, Arsenal won the shootout 5-4.

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