Arsenal have been one of the most dominant teams in the Premier League and indeed the history of English football. Under Arsene Wenger, the Gunners were Manchester United’s main rivals during the late nineties and early noughties, winning the double in 1998 and claiming the title of ‘Invincibles’ in 2004. However, by the mid-2010s, the club was struggling to reach those heady heights and, after qualifying for 19 successive Champions League campaigns, found themselves dropping to the Europa League as their domestic form tumbled.
Arsenal’s odds to win the title and even finish in the top four went up and other clubs were more fancied. The North Londoners endured a rough five years but appear to have turned a corner under Mikel Arteta who has had the team pushing hard to finish first. This article will assess whether the Gunners are still a good bet for top four finishes.
Predicting Arsenal Results and League Positions
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Despite the Frenchman’s previous successes, Wenger’s influence appeared to be waning and he was unable to reassemble another side that was capable of taking on the likes of Chelsea, Manchester City, United and Liverpool. The club has found greater consistency under Arteta in recent seasons and been involved in successive title races. Fans betting on Arsenal will have noted the odds shortening in recent seasons which will play a significant role in their decision-making around Premier League wagers.
Arsenal’s Top-Four Finishes Over the Last Decade
Arsenal have finished in the top four in only four of the last ten seasons since the 2015/16 campaign. Before that, for comparison, the Gunners had last finished outside the top four way back in 1995/96 when they had to settle for fifth place.
During Wenger’s final seasons, Arsenal finished second before falling to fifth and then sixth. In Unai Emery’s one full campaign at the Emirates Stadium, the Gunners ended fifth before finishing eighth twice and fifth again under former captain Mikel Arteta.
Having been allowed to lay down foundations despite the fall in the league, the Spaniard put together a squad capable of competing at the top and earned three straight second-placed finishes between 2023 and 2025. Arsenal, who have been top for most of the current season, are on course to finish in the top two again though will be desperate to finally finish first having been previously been pipped by Manchester City and Liverpool.
How Bookmakers Price Arsenal vs Rivals
Here is a rundown of Arsenal’s title odds since 2017:
- 2017 – 10/1
- 2018 – 10/1
- 2019 – 40/1
- 2020 – 33/1
- 2021 – 80/1
- 2022 – 40/1
- 2023 – 9/2
- 2024 – 33/20
- 2025 – 5/2
As the numbers show, Arsenal grew to become rather unfancied when it came to winning the Premier League between 2019 and 2022. In 2017 and 2018, the Gunners were priced at 10/1 but behind City, United and Chelsea while also falling behind London rivals Tottenham. By 2021, even Leicester were backed to win the title ahead of Arsenal and the team ambled to a lowly eighth in the table. This was a massive drop for the Gunners’ standards.
However, with Arteta working hard to build the club back up, the team’s odds shortened again to 9/2 and even 5/2 after successive title charges resulted in three second-placed finishes. Arsenal have led the way for much of the current campaign and so will again be tipped favourably to go for the title again next season, whether they lift the trophy or again have to accept a second-placed finish.
The Opta stats supercomputer says Arsenal have a 73% chance of winning the title this season compared to Manchester City who have a 27% opportunity after beating the Gunners in April. Arteta’s men are said to have a kinder run of fixtures with City still take on Bournemouth and Crystal Palace before Aston Villa on the final day.
Looking Ahead
So, are Arsenal still a good bet for top four finishes in future seasons. Well, looking at the squad, many of the current team are yet to hit their prime and so this side still have plenty of room to grow after already challenging at the top.
Much depends on Arteta and whether Arsenal stick with the Spaniard. While the Gunners have now been immersed in four successive title races, some could see finishing second each time as failure. Some observers will think the club should stick with Arteta while others may believe a change could see the team finally get over the line to become Premier League champions.