The Premier League is still very likely to get a fifth Champions League qualification spot this season, despite this week’s poor results for English sides.
Thursday’s Europa League and Europa Conference League games rounded out a poor midweek for the English teams in Europe, with Aston Villa’s 1-0 win away to LOSC Lille the only victory for any of the nine Premier League teams involved in European competition.
Fellow Europa League side Nottingham Forest lost at home 1-0 to Midtjylland, Conference League team Crystal Palace drew at home 0-0 with AEK Larnaca, and the Champions League results were even worse.
Manchester City, Chelsea, and Tottenham Hotspur all lost by three goals, Liverpool lost by one, and Arsenal and Newcastle United could only manage 1-1 draws.
So with the English teams performing so badly, is the additional fifth Champions League qualification spot at risk?
The short answer is ‘not yet’. Though it has indeed been a very bad midweek for English teams, Thursday did provide a bit of a boost as German teams VfB Stuttgart and Freiburg both lost and Mainz drew.
The top-two countries get an extra Champions League qualification spot, and England sit first with Germany in third. So the failure of the German teams to capitalise on the English slip-ups maintains a large coefficient gap between the two and keeps the Premier League in pole position.
Dale Johnson points out for the BBC that the German clubs are effectively 17 wins behind England at the moment.
Yet the picture will change if things go badly next week, particularly if Arsenal lose to Bayer Leverkusen, simultaneously hurting England and helping Germany.
In all likelihood, Spurs, City, and Chelsea will be eliminated, and Newcastle are far from favourites to progress as well. Liverpool should be capable of turning around a 1-0 deficit at home, and Arsenal will feel they’re favourites too, but if all six go out then England will be in real trouble.
Of course, Arsenal currently sit 19 points clear of fifth place domestically, so the Premier League losing their fifth Champions League qualification spot would be unlikely to directly hurt the Gunners.
Instead, it’s possible the likes of Chelsea may end up relying on Arsenal’s continued progression to see them into next season’s competition.