Arsenal fans have arguably the most reason in the Premier League to be realistic about their team’s chance of becoming champions, given the obvious disappointments in previous seasons. But fans still have an innate sense of positivity. This applies less to market sentiment based on factors such as statistical analysis, investment in the team, and collective expert opinion. The question is, are fans or the market better at predicting Arsenal?
Looking at the 2025/26 season, the “third time lucky” sentiment of fans at the start brought a positive slant on the club’s chances of finally achieving champions status, although there remained some anxiety given recent end-of-campaign consistency issues for the Gunners. Examining market sentiment also revealed positive strengths. Experts spoke about the dynamism enabled by player flexibility. However, this market positivity was tempered by the undeniable mental hurdle of overcoming the team’s “second-place syndrome,” and by the team’s perceived dependence on scoring from set pieces while struggling to defend them.
Determining whether fans or the market is more accurate in their comments and predictions requires further analysis, beginning with the drivers, strengths, and weaknesses of fan predictions.
Let’s face it, fans all know that the main driver behind their predictions is a love for the club. This sense of loyalty and identity can be useful in prediction making as it enables people to develop a deeper understanding of what affects the team as a whole and individual players, and how these effects can have a positive or negative impact on potential outcomes.
Interestingly, after the Gunners’ defeat to Manchester United, Jeff Stelling and Gabby Agbonlahor suggested that the fans themselves were helping to develop a difficult playing environment as their over-eagerness was creating a nervous energy that could permeate to the players.
It’s this side of the fan/team relationship that is a downside of fan predictions. People who follow the team week in, week out have a connection that can create a see-saw effect. They are devastated after days like the United defeat and are less likely to be positive when predicting future scorelines. Then comprehensive wins like the one against Tottenham tip the scales the other way, and there’s a stronger invincible vibe.
This emotional reaction to individual results negatively impacts the reliability of fan predictions, as does ongoing fan bias. But you are still left with the fact that the fans have a connection with the club and players that gives them insights and instincts that statisticians and pundits do not have.
On the flip side, market sentiment is less emotionally biased. It’s based on an aggregate of statistical models, betting odds, and expert opinions. An example of this is prediction markets that are more popular in the US, even though state enforcement intensifies. In this system, the price of shares in the market represents the probability of an event happening, such as Arsenal winning the Premier League. Betting exchanges that are more common in the UK are similarly reliant on “wisdom of the crowd” and reflect overall feelings about the chances of a team’s success in a particular situation.
These are not the only examples of market sentiment at work. Betting odds are a good indicator, with the Gunners currently 4/7 to win the Premier League. There are also numerous pundits and experts who are only too willing to share statistics, such as ESPN’s recent finding that Arsenal were a woeful 16th in the Premier League for goals from open play. That figure is obviously fluid, but this is still not a good look for a team that has so much riding on finally achieving first place this season.
The impartiality and lack of emotional bias are key strengths of market sentiment in making predictions, along with the sheer volume of statistical information available. Anyone wanting to predict Arsenal effectively simply cannot ignore market sentiment, especially in the long term. However, for short-term predictions, fans have a finger on the pulse of the club, allowing them to see shifts in mood, confidence, and tactics more quickly and clearly.
So, while market sentiment has the edge in predicting outcomes that are likely to be more accurate, it often pays to watch fan interactions, as they can provide indicators of player fitness, tactical changes, and dressing room confidence in real time.