Arsenal host Chelsea at Emirates Stadium at 8pm on Tuesday night in the second leg of the Carabao Cup semi final, with a place at Wembley on March 22 at stake and a first final in the competition for eight years firmly within reach.
Goals from Ben White, Viktor Gyokeres and Martin Zubimendi earned a 3-2 first leg win at Stamford Bridge, leaving Arsenal knowing that a draw in N5 will be enough to progress, making them the favourites when it comes to sports betting.
The visitors arrive needing to overturn that deficit if they are to reach yet another Carabao Cup final.
Chelsea have been resurgent under Liam Rosenior, who has won all of his league matches since taking charge, alongside two Champions League victories and a 5-1 FA Cup win over Charlton.
His only defeat so far came against Arsenal last month, and his side followed that up by coming from 2-0 down at half time to beat West Ham United 3-2, the first time the club have overturned a two goal interval deficit to win a Premier League match.
Speaking ahead of the second leg, Mikel Arteta stressed the importance of the occasion and the role of the home crowd, saying, “Yes, I mean the next one is always the most important one and it is the closest at least to reach a final. And tomorrow we are going to have people who really need to create the atmosphere, the energy, the belief that we are going to do it. Altogether, I am sure we are very capable of doing that.”
Rosenior acknowledged the challenge facing his side, adding, “The reality is that Arsenal are favourites for the tie. They’re a goal up and they’re at home, so they’ll expect to go through. We need to take it as far as we can and as deep as we can, then hopefully the second half will be massive in terms of turning the tie around.”
Team news sees Mikel Merino ruled out after it was confirmed he will undergo surgery on a foot injury sustained against Manchester United, while Bukayo Saka will be assessed after pulling up in the warm up before the 4-0 win over Leeds United.
For the visitors, Jamie Gittens is unavailable after being substituted in the first half against West Ham United, with Estevao a possible absentee for personal reasons and goalkeeper Filip Jorgensen also a doubt, while Levi Colwill, Romeo Lavia and, of course, Mykhailo Mudryk, are all unavailable.
Tactically, Chelsea are expected to line up in a 4-2-3-1 under Rosenior, with an emphasis on pace and aggression in wide areas. Writing in the matchday programme, Adrian Clarke noted the visitors’ willingness to play risky passes from deep to break lines and attack down the flanks, where players such as Pedro Neto and Alejandro Garnacho will be encouraged to run at full backs. With Garnacho making an impact from the bench in the first leg, he seems likely to start.
According to Clarke, Chelsea’s xG output is comparable to Arsenal’s in the Premier League this season, while their conversion rate ranks fourth in the division, rising to second when it comes to finishing big chances. Like with Arsenal, set pieces remain a key threat, with corners proving fruitful in both previous meetings this season, particularly through Reece James’ near post deliveries.
The historical context favours Arsenal, who are unbeaten in their last nine meetings with Chelsea in all competitions, winning six and drawing three, their longest such run since 1999 to 2004. They are aiming to reach the EFL Cup final for the ninth time and the first since 2017-18, and precedent is firmly on their side, with only two teams having previously won the first leg of a semi final away from home and gone out. Chelsea have lost their last three away games at Emirates Stadium in all competitions, although both of their victories against Arteta have come there.
If the aggregate score is level after 90 minutes, extra time will be played, with penalties to follow if required.
Arsenal needed spot kicks to progress past Crystal Palace in the quarter final after a 1-1 draw, prevailing 8-7, but the task on Tuesday is clear, protect the advantage, harness the atmosphere and take the final step back to Wembley.
Peter Bankes will take charge of the game, with the relatively unknown James Bell on VAR.