Sweden have confirmed their spot in the World Cup qualification play-offs despite a terrible qualifying campaign and their latest 4-1 defeat to Switzerland.
Injured Arsenal star Viktor Gyokeres won’t have enjoyed watching his international teammates losing 4-1 to Switzerland without him last week, but the good news is that they’ve made it to the World Cup qualification play-offs anyway.
That might be surprising news to anyone who has followed Sweden’s results in qualifying, with the team losing four games, drawing one, and winning none.
Sweden sit bottom of their qualifying group with one game remaining, and even a win in their final game against Slovenia would only lift them to third place. A draw or defeat will see them finishing last.
Yet Sweden will qualify for the World Cup qualification play-offs regardless, as a result of their Nations League performance.
Given Sweden’s group-winning showing in the 2024/25 Nations League, they’ve always had a chance of sneaking into the World Cup qualification play-offs, even if things went wrong in their qualifying group.
That option depended on how many of the other Nations League group winners secured qualification through their World Cup qualifying groups, and thus didn’t need their own Nations League backup plan.
As of this week, enough of the group winners have qualified that Sweden are mathematically guaranteed a spot in the play-offs next March.
Having said that, Sweden’s failure to make the play-offs directly through their qualification group does have one negative consequence, as they’ll now be a Pot 4 team.
That means they’ll play away from home against a Pot 1 team in their first game of the play-offs, and if they win they’ll play the final against another higher-seeded team (the winner of the Pot 2 vs Pot 3 match).
It’s single-leg elimination, and only one team from each bracket of four will make the final tournament.
Gyokeres and Sweden will get one last shot at World Cup qualification next March, but it will be all or nothing against the hardest opponents they could have given themselves.