Arsenal’s pursuit of Joan García is likely to hinge not only on the goalkeeper’s willingness to compete with David Raya, but also on a set of cascading variables that could alter his release clause by millions in either direction over the next 72 hours.
Espanyol’s refusal to enter negotiations has left García’s release clause, currently set at €25m (£21.4m), as the only formal route to signing the 24-year-old.
However, that figure is conditional, and Arsenal, among other suitors, are watching closely.
If Espanyol are relegated on Saturday, García’s clause is expected to drop to approximately £13m, a potential saving of over £8m for a club managing a broader summer budget.
Relegation is a real threat. Espanyol must beat Las Palmas, or match Leganés’ result against Real Valladolid, to avoid the drop. Should they fail, García’s price would plummet at precisely the moment Mikel Arteta and Andrea Berta are looking to strengthen the squad without compromising other key moves in attack and midfield.
There is another factor in play. García’s clause may rise again if he is called up by Luis de la Fuente for Spain’s upcoming fixtures. That squad will be announced on Monday, meaning Saturday’s result may offer only a brief window before his price climbs again.
For now, Arsenal are said to be watching. As Sam Dean reported in The Telegraph, what once looked a straightforward move has been complicated both by García’s increasing visibility across Europe after another superb season and doubts about whether he would now accept a back-up role behind David Raya.
The Spaniard’s season – 37 appearances, seven clean sheets, and the best save stats, despite Espanyol’s defensive vulnerability – has attracted interest from Barcelona, Real Madrid, Aston Villa, and others.
Espanyol, for their part, have economic constraints that limit them to reinvesting just 20 percent of any transfer fee. That makes them all the more determined to retain García, unless the clause is triggered in full.
A product of the club’s academy, García is not just seen as one of the best young keepers in La Liga, but as a cornerstone of the club’s future, if they can stay up.
The margin between £21.4m and £13m is unlikely to determine whether Arsenal make a concrete move at all. But if García signals a willingness to challenge for a place at the club, Arsenal would be foolish not to act.
Common sense, however, would seem to dictate that he will now go to a top club, where he will be the undisputed number one, after Arsenal came so close to signing him last summer.