With Arsenal now out of the Champions League, the one thing left to play for this season is qualifying for next season’s competition.
Arsenal might have hoped to qualify for next season’s Champions League by winning the competition itself, but those hopes ended with elimination to Paris Saint-Germain on Wednesday night.
As a result, Arsenal’s route to Champions League qualification is by finishing in the top five of the Premier League, with the Gunners currently second – but with tough games coming up against Liverpool and Newcastle.
Let’s take a look at how Arsenal can guarantee a top-five finish and start to think ahead to 2025/26.
Arsenal are currently on 67 points with three games remaining. Since sixth-place Nottingham Forest (61 points) still have to play fifth-place Chelsea (63 points), it’s impossible for both of them to reach 70 points.
The worst-case scenario for Arsenal would be Forest winning all three games to hit 70 and Chelsea winning their other two matches to reach 69. That would mean Chelsea beating Newcastle, but if Newcastle beat Arsenal and Everton, they’d also reach 69 points.
Villa could reach 69 as well with three wins in their three games, none of which are against Champions League qualification rivals. But they can’t reach 70.
In other words, Arsenal need one win to hit 70 points and mathematically confirm Champions League football. But even two draws to reach 69 would likely be enough, given the Gunners’ goal difference advantage over Newcastle, Chelsea, and Villa.
And if any other teams drop points, or Chelsea’s games against Newcastle and Forest don’t go the right way, the task becomes even easier.
The other thing Arsenal might be thinking about is trying to secure second place, given you earn more money for second versus fifth.
The calculation there is much simpler. Manchester City are Arsenal’s closest rivals and their maximum points tally is 73. If Arsenal win two games, they’d reach 73 and it would come down to goal difference, with the Gunners holding a nine-goal lead over City as it stands.
Two wins and a draw mathematically guarantees second place. Any dropped points by City would help.
Fixtures for the Champions League hopefuls
Matchday 36
- May 10th: Southampton vs Manchester City
- May 10th: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
- May 11th: Newcastle United vs Chelsea
- May 11th: Nottingham Forest vs Leicester City
- May 11th: Liverpool vs Arsenal
Matchday 37
- May 16th: Aston Villa vs Spurs
- May 16th: Chelsea vs Manchester United
- May 18th: West Ham vs Nottingham Forest
- May 18th: Arsenal vs Newcastle United
- May 20th: Manchester City vs Bournemouth
Matchday 38
- May 25th: Fulham vs Manchester City
- May 25th: Manchester United vs Aston Villa
- May 25th: Newcastle United vs Everton
- May 25th: Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea
- May 25th: Southampton vs Arsenal