League leaders Arsenal are still the outsiders to win the Premier League among the top-three teams, according to a report.
Arsenal had a great weekend in terms of the Premier League title race, defeating Brentford with a late winner before seeing rivals Liverpool and Manchester City play out a draw.
Those two results boosted Arsenal’s chances of winning the Premier League title, according to Opta Analyst, but the Gunners are still a way off Liverpool and Manchester City in terms of the favourites to win the competition.
Opta Analyst report that Arsenal’s chances of winning the league have risen from 13% to 18.8%. However, Manchester City remain the overwhelming favourites at 45.9%, with Liverpool trailing them at 35.3%.
Opta’s prediction model estimates the probability of each match outcome using betting market odds and Opta’s Power Rankings, which themselves are based on historical and recent team performances.
The model assesses the strength of each team’s remaining opponents, then simulates the matches thousands of times, before arriving at a percentage chance for a given team to win the league.
Despite sitting at the top of the table, Arsenal arguably have the most difficult run of fixtures still to come.
The Gunners have to travel away to Manchester City, as well as playing Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United, and Brighton away from home, and Chelsea and Aston Villa at home.
City and Liverpool both have to play Spurs, Brighton, and Aston Villa as well, and Liverpool also have to play Manchester United away. But on paper, you can see why Arsenal’s fixture list looks the most difficult.
Yet you never know when a team might slip up. For example, most probably wouldn’t have predicted City dropping points to Crystal Palace, Wolves, and home and away to Chelsea.
A few more surprise results like that for City and Liverpool and Arsenal’s chances will grow.
But right now, the situation is down to the Gunners to solve on their own, as a win over City at the Etihad Stadium would certainly help matters significantly.