In spite of reports this week that put Italy and Germany in the lead for a fifth Champions League qualification spot, England remain likely to receive the extra place.

Arsenal's Spanish manager Mikel Arteta arrives for a press conference on the eve of their UEFA Champions League last 16 first leg football match against FC Porto at the Dragao stadium in Porto on February 20, 2024. (Photo by MIGUEL RIOPA / AFP) (Photo by MIGUEL RIOPA/AFP via Getty Images)
Arsenal’s Spanish manager Mikel Arteta arrives for a press conference on the eve of their UEFA Champions League last 16 first leg football match against FC Porto at the Dragao stadium in Porto on February 20, 2024. (Photo by MIGUEL RIOPA/AFP via Getty Images)

Earlier this week, Rob Harris covered the latest UEFA data, showing that Italy and Germany were in line to receive extra Champions League qualification spots next season.

For anyone unaware, the new expanded Champions League format will have four spots for English teams as usual, but there’s the potential for an additional fifth spot.

It all depends on how English clubs do in Europe this season, with no other seasons factored into the calculation.

If all the German teams make the finals of the various European competitions, for example, and the English teams crash out immediately, one spot would definitely go to Germany at England’s expense.

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There are two extra spots on offer in total, for the best two countries.

Draw balls displayed on set prior to the draw ceremony for the UEFA Champions League 2023-2024 Group Stage at The Grimaldi Forum in the Principality of Monaco on August 31, 2023. (Photo by NICOLAS TUCAT/AFP via Getty Images)
Draw balls displayed on set prior to the draw ceremony for the UEFA Champions League 2023-2024 Group Stage at The Grimaldi Forum in the Principality of Monaco on August 31, 2023. (Photo by NICOLAS TUCAT/AFP via Getty Images)

As it stands, Germany and Italy are in the lead ahead of England, in part due to Manchester United and Newcastle United crashing out of the Champions League in the group stage.

But according to the stats people at Opta (via Sky Sports), England are actually second-favourites to pick up a fifth qualification place ahead of Germany – and only behind Italy.

German sides are currently struggling, with none of their five teams leading their ongoing European ties after the first legs.

Bayer Leverkusen are the sixth German team still in Europe, and they’re in great form. But they won’t play the next round of the Europa League until March.

Liverpool, Brighton, and West Ham United also all got byes to the next round of the Europa League after topping their groups, as did Aston Villa in the Europa Conference League. In the Champions League, Manchester City have won their first leg, and Arsenal play tonight.

Champions League "fifth spot" predictions from Opta Analyst showing England with 82.1% chance of getting it
Champions League “fifth spot” predictions from Opta Analyst

By the time the next stage of all three competitions comes around, Germany could be down to one team, whereas England will have a minimum of four, with Manchester City a very likely fifth, and Arsenal a possible sixth.

So even though Germany are edging out England by the narrowest of margins right now, England are heavily predicted to finish with an extra Champions League spot for next season. Opta put their current odds at 82.1%.

The bad news for Arsenal fans is that it doesn’t look like the Gunners will be the beneficiaries of an extra spot this season, given Mikel Arteta’s side are in the top four anyway. The fifth spot is more likely to go to a club like Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur.

But that’s just an unfortunate consequence of Arsenal’s strong European performances so far this season. Most Arsenal fans would probably take that trade-off.

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