Arsenal's French striker Alexandre Lacazette (C) celebrates with Arsenal's English goalkeeper Aaron Ramsdale (L) and Arsenal's English striker Eddie Nketiah (R) on the final whistle in the English Premier League football match between Arsenal and Wolverhampton Wanderers at the Emirates Stadium in London on February 24, 2022. - Arsenal won the game 2-1. (Photo by GLYN KIRK/AFP via Getty Images)

Data says Arsenal Top 4 favourites over Manchester United and Tottenham

Feb 25, 2022

Arsenal are now the clear favourites to seal a top four spot and a return to Champions League football according to data from FiveThirtyEight.

LONDON, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 24: Alexandre Lacazette of Arsenal celebrates their sides second goal with team mate Bukayo Saka during the Premier League match between Arsenal and Wolverhampton Wanderers at Emirates Stadium on February 24, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images) — LONDON, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 24: Alexandre Lacazette of Arsenal celebrates their sides second goal with team mate Bukayo Saka during the Premier League match between Arsenal and Wolverhampton Wanderers at Emirates Stadium on February 24, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

Arsenal’s win over Wolves on Thursday night took them five points clear of their opponents (with a game in hand) and to within one point of Manchester United (with two, albeit tricky, games in hand).

As for Spurs, Arsenal are now six points ahead of their north London rivals, who have also played 24 games before this weekend.

FiveThirtyEight make the not unreasonable assumption that Manchester City and Liverpool (99% each) will qualify for the Champions League, as will Chelsea (97%).

That leaves just one slot available in the top four, with five teams chasing it.

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LONDON, ENGLAND - FEBRUARY 24: A pitch invader reacts as Alexandre Lacazette of Arsenal (hidden) celebrates their sides second goal with team mates during the Premier League match between Arsenal and Wolverhampton Wanderers at Emirates Stadium on February 24, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images) — LONDON, ENGLAND – FEBRUARY 24: A pitch invader reacts as Alexandre Lacazette of Arsenal (hidden) celebrates their sides second goal with team mates during the Premier League match between Arsenal and Wolverhampton Wanderers at Emirates Stadium on February 24, 2022 in London, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

According to their data, FiveThirtyEight make the following predictions (you can read how they determine their percentages here).

5. West Ham United – 3% chance of qualifying for the Champions League.

4. Wolverhampton Wanderers – 3% chance of qualifying for the Champions League.

3. Tottenham Hotspur – 12% chance of qualifying for the Champions League.

2. Manchester United – 24% chance of qualifying for the Champions League.

Arsenal – 61% chance of qualifying for the Champions League.

Arsenal dropped out of the Champions League in 2017 and out of Europa altogether at the end of last season.

Most expected the club to target a return to European football this season with a push for the Champions League in 22/23, but it looks very likely that Arsenal will be in the mix for a place this season.

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