Arsenal are the most likely team to finish fourth this season, ahead of Manchester United and Chelsea, according to a prediction by GoalImpact.

GoalImpact run an extensive football prediction service, using an algorithm based solely on quantitative data. Most regularly, they use it to evaluate a player’s impact on his team, but they also use it to predict the outcome of the league table. According to their latest prediction, Arsenal are set for a top-four finish.

As you can see, Arsenal (36.7%) are the most likely to finish fourth, ahead of Manchester United (28.4%) and Chelsea (19.5%). However, the Gunners are still only 47.4% likely to finish in the top four in any position, so it really could go either way at this stage.

As it stands, Arsenal are one point ahead of Manchester United and three ahead of Chelsea, but The Blues have a game in hand. Let’s have a look at the fixtures the three clubs have left, with matches against the ‘big six’ shown in bold.


  • Arsenal vs Bournemouth
  • Tottenham Hotspur vs Arsenal
  • Arsenal vs Manchester United
  • Wolves vs Arsenal
  • Arsenal vs Newcastle United
  • Everton vs Arsenal
  • Watford vs Arsenal
  • Arsenal vs Crystal Palace
  • Leicester City vs Arsenal
  • Arsenal vs Brighton
  • Burnley vs Arsenal


  • Chelsea vs Brighton (postponed for League Cup final, new date TBC)
  • Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
  • Fulham vs Chelsea
  • Chelsea vs Wolves
  • Everton vs Chelsea
  • Cardiff City vs Chelsea
  • Chelsea vs West Ham
  • Liverpool vs Chelsea
  • Chelsea vs Burnley
  • Manchester United vs Chelsea
  • Chelsea vs Watford
  • Leicester City vs Chelsea

Manchester United

  • Crystal Palace vs Manchester United
  • Manchester United vs Southampton
  • Arsenal vs Manchester United
  • Manchester United vs Manchester City
  • Manchester United vs Watford
  • Wolves vs Manchester United
  • Manchester United vs West Ham
  • Everton vs Manchester United
  • Manchester United vs Chelsea
  • Huddersfield vs Manchester United
  • Manchester United vs Cardiff City

Arsenal have the fewest big six matches left to play, though they still have a number of potentially tricky fixtures. There are away trips to top-half sides Wolves, Watford and Everton still to come, in particular.

Plus, there’s that potentially season-defining fortnight where Arsenal have to play Spurs away and United at home with the Europa League round-of-16 tie sandwiched in there too.

Meanwhile, United have the toughest run. They’re already behind and still have to play one of the title challengers, plus both of their top four rivals and two of those same top-half away trips to Wolves and Everton. They also play Watford and West Ham, but at home.

It’s a bit pointless trying to predict how Chelsea will perform from now on, as they’ve been all over the place for the last few weeks and haven’t played a Premier League game since their 6-0 defeat to Manchester City. We’ll see how they fare against Tottenham on Wednesday.