Lucas Torreira was Arsenal’s most expensive signing of the summer. When on the pitch, he has been objectively and subjectively one of the best players on the pitch. So why has he yet to start a match under Unai Emery?
It certainly has not been his play. What has separated Matteo Guendouzi, who has started in his place?
Defensive
When he was signed, he was hailed as the missing link for Arsenal—the long-awaited defensive midfielder. In his time on the pitch, he has been just that. Arsenal’s back line has been a bit haphazard so far. Oftentimes they need a last-ditch effort to prevent a goal. But every time Torreira comes on, things seem to calm down. His positional sense is second-to-none. He always knows just where to be. He fills in the gaps perfectly when Arsenal’s pressing system forces defenders out of position. As a result, he has 6 tackles and 5 interceptions in just 164 minutes (3.3 tackles and 2.75 interceptions per 90 minutes).
The stat that reflects his ability to slide deeper and assist the backline is his shots blocked per 90. In the Premier League, he has blocked 0.5 shots every 90 minutes, which is 17% of the team’s total despite being on the pitch less than half the time. In the World Cup for Uruguay, he blocked an astounding 1.8 shots and 0.9 crosses per 90.
The player starting ahead of him at the moment is Matteo Guendouzi. Though Torreira appears to be a more stabilizing option, Guendouzi has actually produced more tackles per 90 minutes (3.6) and interceptions (3.1). Unai Emery is much more trusting of advanced analytics than Arsene Wenger was. Perhaps this is what Emery is seeing when he selects Guendouzi over Torreira.
As far as shots blocked, Guendouzi only has 0.3 blocks per 90, reflecting his higher positioning. A defensive midfielder that starts further back would suit the team better with how shaky Arsenal’s defence has looked through the first 5 games.
Statistics, though useful, are not everything. Torreira seems to have a calming effect over the back line. Arsenal look and feel more stable with him on the pitch. Torreira appears the best defender to the eye. His rival for minutes appears the better defender on paper. Perhaps this is why Emery is splitting the minutes evenly.
Offensive
Despite his defensive capabilities being what excited fans when he signed, his offensive skills have been outstanding. His ability to pick out passes in the final third have stood out even among his “Wengerball” era teammates.
Against Cardiff, he completed every single one of his passes and provided a terrific assist.
https://twitter.com/MoneyballFM/status/1036263508168638464
https://twitter.com/JohnBappe/status/1036255994043613185
Torreira has made 71 passes per 90 as opposed to Guendouzi’s 62. He is also putting in more than twice as many key passes for every 90 minutes on the pitch (1.1 vs 0.5)
The quality that Guendouzi possesses that Torreira does not (or at least has not shown as much of yet) is range. Guendouzi has played 18 accurate long balls to Torreira’s 5. This pass Guendouzi hit against Chelsea was a thing of beauty.
https://twitter.com/SteeArsenal/status/1032018608384364549
Range vs. key passes
Who starts comes down to what Emery values more. Arsenal have seemed to “click” better offensively when Torreira comes on. The more efficient and shorter passing appears on the surface to suit the team better. Granit Xhaka can provide plenty of ranged passes.
With Mesut Özil already being able to provide plenty of key passes, Emery probably wants to add greater passing range. Emery must see Guendouzi’s range as a slight positive in his favor.
Experience
This is the one category that leans heavily in one player’s favor.
Prior to this season, Guendouzi had played exclusively in Ligue 2. Torreira, on the other hand, is a full international for Uruguay, played at the World Cup, and started all last season in Serie A. And he has played well in those competitions.
He was 11th among midfielders in interceptions per match at the World Cup, despite being a substitute in two of his 3 appearances. This experience is what has led many Arsenal fans shocked to see his name listed among the substitutes in each match so far. Guendouzi is much more of an unknown quantity, at least to fans of the club. Emery either is very willing to play youngsters or does not value experience very much.
Too close to call
The on-pitch differences between the two seem to be minimal. One would tend to think that experience would then tip the scales. Emery is probably choosing what he is more familiar with.
Though Guendouzi was playing in Ligue 2, it is a reasonable assumption that PSG was scouting Guendouzi more than Torreira. It is a positive that he has given each more or less equal time on the pitch, allowing both to play for their place.
Guendouzi has shone early, but it is not uncommon for young players to start hot and cool off. Expect the more experienced Torreira to earn the lion’s share of the minutes as the season wears on in the same way that Emery eventually succumbed to playing Lacazette and Aubameyang together.
Statistics courtesy of WhoScored and the Premier League.