There is a scenario that could see Arsenal starting next season with a Europa League qualifier just 11 days after the end of the World Cup.

Say what?

Highlighting Arsenal’s slide from the days they used to worry about finishing in fourth place, thus having to endure a Champions League qualifier, to have to qualify for the Europa League would be yet another humiliation for this club. Even the best bookmaker offers aren’t on Arsenal’s side.

But it’s a very real possibility when you consider their current domestic form:

https://twitter.com/jamesbenge/status/985832298544234496

Given how poorly Arsenal have coped with the Spursy nature of a Thursday-Sunday season, a serious argument must be made for Arsenal being better off next season without any sort of European football at all if they cannot make it back into the Champions League.

Let me explain.

When Chelsea were not playing in Europe, they won the league.

When Liverpool were not playing in Europe, they used their free time to improve in the league, work on the training ground and put together a team and set of tactics perfectly honed that has taken them further in the Champions League than Arsenal have managed in almost a decade and delivered a sense of optimism to their supporters that is painfully absent at Arsenal.

Although Wenger opted to play a load of kids in the Europa League group stages, he was required to dip into the main team for most matches and the result, as we have seen domestically, was an Arsenal slide down the table so bad they are in danger of being overtaken by Burnley.

Let’s look at each of those three points to see how likely they are to happen:

Arsenal don’t win Europa League

This is very likely.

Although Arsenal can beat anyone in a one-off game, they have to turn up first and then hope they can take advantage of their opponent’s weaknesses.

To get to the final, never mind to actually win the thing, Arsenal have to get past Atletico Madrid in a two-legged affair with the second game away from home. Atletico have conceded just three goals at home in Europe this seasons, and two of those were to Chelsea That’s right, they’ve played six European games at the Wanda Metropolitano and conceded in just two of them.

Away from home in Europe they have conceded four.

Arsenal, on the other hand, have conceded 10 in 14 matches which is positively watertight compared to the 45 they’ve conceded in the Premier League. It’s an even split between home and away in Europe with five conceded in each.

We used to be able to count on Arsenal to get up for matches like finals and semi-finals, but as we saw at Wembley against Manchester City who didn’t even play that well, this is no longer something we can take for granted from this Arsenal team.

Burnley overtake Arsenal in the Premier League

This is also very likely.

There are five games left for both sides and Arsenal are only two points ahead of Sean Dyche’s men.

Arsenal’s remaining fixtures see them play three of their final five away from home and we cannot expect a single point from any of those games.

Assuming we stay true to this season’s form – we’ve won 3 out of 16 – let’s say we come away with one point from those away games anyway. Our two home games are bankers so that’s another six, giving Arsenal a finishing total of 61 points.

They haven’t had that few points on the board at the end of the season since 1994/5 and we’d be a full 14 points worse off than last season despite this season supposedly being one where the team show us they mean business after finishing fifth the season before.

Burnley, meanwhile, have won their last five, have two fewer defeats than Arsenal overall, and have to play Chelsea, Stoke, Brighton, Bournemouth and, of course, Arsenal.

Let’s be kind to Arsenal and assume Burnley will lose to the Gunners as that game is at the Grove. The rest they are quite capable of winning, even against Chelsea at Turf Moor.

That would give Burnley a final total of 64 points.

Even beating Burnley in May will not be enough for Arsenal if they don’t deal with their away form and there are zero indications they can do that in time.

Southampton don’t win the FA Cup

This is also very likely.

The Saints need to beat Chelsea to make the final where they will meet either Spurs or United. Of course, it is the FA Cup and anything can happen, but they have Mark Hughes in charge and he has shown himself this season as the awful manager he really is.

I will never understand how so many managers are rewarded with another Premier League job after failing so miserably that they get sacked. And Hughes hasn’t just failed at one Premier League or Championship club – he flunked at Manchester City, Fulham, and QPR before he ever arrived at Stoke. Thanks to him, they are about to see their decade of Premier League football come to an end.

Thankfully, Arsenal only need one of those three things to happen to ensure they don’t have to start playing competitive football before the end of July.

But if Champions League football is not going to be an option next season – and there’s an argument to be made that it shouldn’t be given how bad we are – then I’d rather Arsenal weren’t in Europe at all.

Let Wenger have his final season at the club with nothing to focus on but going for the league title.

It would be a long shot, but if the entire club got behind him for his last hurrah who knows what might happen.

Perhaps the manager who once said he could go through an entire league season unbeaten – and then actually did – could find one more unlikely rabbit hidden somewhere within his battered magic hat.