James Olley wrote in the Evening Standard that starting David Ospina in the League Cup final is a ‘gamble’ that isn’t ‘worth the risk’, but is he being unfair on the keeper?
In his column in the Standard, Olley argued that despite a few recent errors, Petr Čech “remains one of Arsenal’s most reliable performers”.
He pointed to the League Cup final of 2011 as evidence of the importance of playing a good goalkeeper. That year a mix-up between Wojciech Szczesny and Laurent Koscielny led to Birmingham City’s winner.
Of course, he’s right that having a top goalkeeper can have a massive impact.
David De Gea consistently bails out the Manchester United defence with his excellent shot stopping. Ederson’s distribution allowed Manchester City to kick on and reach new heights this season.
On the other hand, I don’t think Čech is showing he’s significantly better than Ospina this season.
Comparing the two on the most basic stat, clean sheets, Čech has kept 10 in 29 matches (one every 2.9 games), whilst Ospina has six in 12 matches (one every 2 games).
Of course, the defence and the quality of opposition can have a massive impact on clean sheets, but when you delve further into the statistics, the picture doesn’t get much better for the Czech international.
As you can see in the above graphic, Čech’s distribution has largely been very good this season. However, his shot-stopping is middle of the pack at best, and significantly below Ospina’s.
Plus, these stats don’t take into account the fact the 35-year-old has made more errors leading to goals than any other player in the league.
Petr Cech: Has now committed four errors that have directly led to an opposition goal in the Premier League this season, more than any other player #SWAARS
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) January 30, 2018
That’s not to say Čech isn’t a good goalkeeper, he had a fantastic game against Tottenham recently. I just don’t think he’s any less of a risk than Ospina.
The Colombian played well against Chelsea in the FA Cup final last season, even if he was caught out by a deflected effort to prevent a clean sheet. Both goalkeepers have their strengths and their faults, and either could have a shocker on the day.
Wenger made his goalkeeping gamble by choosing to sell Szczesny and not bring anyone else in for the last few windows. Picking Ospina this weekend isn’t the problem, and we shouldn’t act like it is.