Arsenal have a 10% chance of finishing inside the top four or winning the Europa League, according to simulations from FiveThirtyEight, leaving their Champions League hopes in tatters.
After finishing outside the top four last season, the goal this time around was to reclaim our place.
With 11 games remaining of this Premier League season, the chances of us doing that are small.
In fact, we now only have a 10% chance of a top four finish according to simulations run by FiveThirtyEight.
Using statistical data gathered from league games this season, they ran thousands of simulations to determine the probability of teams’ final league placings.
There’s a high chance of Arsenal finishing sixth, and a good eight points off the top four.
Their 10% chance of a top four finish is far below the 46% chance given to Chelsea, and way below Manchester United’s 70%, Tottenham’s 80% and Liverpool’s 94%,
If it wasn’t abundantly clear based on our performances already, it’s going to take a minor miracle for us to finish fourth.
FiveThirtyEight also ran a simulation of the Europa League.
Once again, Arsenal have been given a 10% chance of winning it.
This would make the club third favourites for the trophy behind Atletico Madrid (16%) and Napoli (13%), which looks about right on paper.
However, Napoli may decide to prioritise the Serie A title, which could boost our chances.
It won’t be easy, but winning the Europa League is our best bet of Champions League football next season.