Manchester City will win the Premier League, based on recent history, but the omens are good for Arsenal in terms of Champions League qualification.

Only two teams have ever been top of the league on Christmas Day without winning the title: Liverpool (in 2008/09 and 2013/14) and Arsenal (2007/08).

Manchester City, on the other hand, have won it every time they’ve been top at Christmas.

They’re also 13 points ahead of second place, so the title race seems to be over – a margin never before seen in top flight football at this time of year.

However, it’s a different story with the top four.

In fact, the team in fourth at Christmas normally misses out on Champions League. Six times in the last 10 years, that’s been the case.

Here’s how Arsenal’s position has changed from Christmas to May over that period:

• 2007/08 – 1st at Christmas, 3rd in May (-2).
• 2008/09 – 5th at Christmas, 4th in May (+1).
• 2009/10 – 3rd at Christmas, 3rd in May (0).
• 2010/11 – 2nd at Christmas, 4th in May (-2).
• 2011/12 – 5th at Christmas, 3rd in May (+2).
• 2012/13 – 4th at Christmas, 4th in May (0).
• 2013/14 – 2nd at Christmas, 4th in May (-2).
• 2014/15 – 6th at Christmas, 3rd in May (+3).
• 2015/16 – 2nd at Christmas, 2nd in May (0).
• 2016/17 – 4th at Christmas, 5th in May (-1).

Overall, the Gunners have lost one place over the 10 years combined, which sounds like bad news.

However, in campaigns where Arsenal were outside the top four at Christmas, they’ve gained six places combined, and always made it back into the Champions League qualification places.

Hopefully this is another one of those seasons.