Wales women, who are managed by the Arsenal Ladies legend Jayne Ludlow, still have a chance to qualify for the 2017 Euros to be played in Netherlands.

Wales have just beaten Kazakhstan 4-0 away and are currently ranked third in Group 8 with seven points. They are  five points behind leaders Austria with both sides having three games to play.

Favourites, Norway, are level on points with Austria but with a game in hand.

The remaining games are for the three sides:

  • 02/06 Norway v Austria
  • 06/06 Austria v Israel
  • 07/06 Wales v Norway
  • 15/09 Wales v Israel
  • 15/09 Norway v Kazhakstan
  • 19/09 Norway v Israel
  • 20/09 Wales v Austria

The eight group winners and the six best runners-up then advance to the final tournament, while the other two runners-up go to a play-off from 17–25 October 2016.

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Wales have to win their remaining three games to reach 16 points. They are unlikely to catch up with Norway, who should get maximum points against Kazakhstan and Israel and therefore reach 18 points.

They could potentially catch up on Austria to reach the runners-up position. Austria are very likely to beat Israel at home and therefore would reach 15 points.

Everything will depend on the head-to-head games with Norway and Wales.

Wales also need Norway to beat Austria.

An Austrian win in Norway would mean 18 points at least for both sides (in theory), while a draw would mean at least 16 points for Austria.

16 being the maximum that can be reached by Wales, it would then go to the tie-breaker:

“If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points on completion of the
qualifying group stage, the following criteria are applied, in the order given, to determine the rankings:
a. higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the
teams in question;
b. superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in
question;
c. higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams
in question;
d. higher number of goals scored away from home in the group matches played
among the teams in question”
The head-to-head rule leaves Wales needing to beat Austria by four clear goals if both sides finish level on points, an unlikely scoreline.  
Overall, Wales have a small chance of making the Euros as one of the runners-up, but will  need to beat tough opponents and get a bit of luck.
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